Elections 2024: A ‘Course Correction’ for the BJP?

Let us take a look back at the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, once again. Read from one side, one single party has as many seats as its main opposition put together, in its combined strength. The BJP did lose as many as 60 seats, reaching nowhere near the 400 paar, but yet it did hold on to enough to score a third consecutive majority (though not, on its own), forming a government beating incumbency, almost! A third term was almost incredible, in times like these when coalitions are becoming more common globally. Whether one wants to accept it or not, the BJP did more than well, for a third consecutive term. Only that it was claiming it will get more, the final numbers may look like a climb down. The PM was sworn in for a record third time.

Read, from the other side, from the perspective of the opposition, every other party was a winner, too. The INDI Alliance was also beaming, just as much. Managing a breakthrough when all was being written off. There was more than hope; there was hope, too, in 2019, yet the results were different. Opposition parties, almost all of them, romped home as winners in their respective bastions – the Samajwadi Party in UP, the TMC in Bengal, not to mention the Congress which nearly doubled their representation. Rahul Gandhi won both his seats; the Congress got back the prestigious Amethi. Imagine, in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP saw its tally fall the most, in spite of all claims of a ‘double-engine growth’! One of the engines did not work, which one, is hard to tell?

What was this collective verdict, putting the two sides together to find a common narrative? In the national perspective, with 240 seats going to the ruling party, as the single largest party by far, it was a verdict that did not ask for change. As a collective verdict from across the nation, when read together as a single mandate; was it to say we are not seeking a change, but we do ask for a ‘course correction’? And, conversely, was it to say, we need a stronger and more visible opposition to put checks on what the government of the day will do.

So, what do we have after the results, and the narrative being read as above, if we assume this reading has some credibility? How much has moved in this direction, both within the government and also within the ranks of the opposition? Have we witnessed any change or course correction, or a more responsible opposition? Why is this important? Because, if every result must be read with an eye on the future, then our strengths and weaknesses need to be identified and made good.

BJP is eyeing 30 years at the centre, like the Congress once did!

Let us analyse the need for course correction? Isn’t this critical for a potential fourth term, as often the ruling party has been saying they are eyeing a fourth term; to reign for a full 30 years, just like the Congress did in the early years of our democracy, as an independent India? ‘Give us 30 years as you did the Congress’, is what has often been said. And, perhaps, with serious intention. That here was a party with a difference, which has growth and development on its agenda; that given an equal measure of 30 years, they will prove how different they can be from the other.

The first immediate fallout after the general elections was not too favourable. Like, in the assembly elections that were held almost immediately thereafter. In states like Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress outsmarted its rivals, the message went home even more forcefully.

How much has the BJP or its partners gone ahead with this introspection? Perhaps within the RSS there has been some open debate. Like the statements from their chief on the need for politicians and leaders to be first and foremost public servants, for the need to shed hubris and personal glory. There have been rumblings in some states.

What about at the government level? The first signs on how we will go forward, can be best viewed from its cabinet formation. Without a clear majority on its own and with partners by its side, there was a sudden loss of opportunity to experiment on any grand scale, with less elbow room. There were strong rumours of new faces, new portfolios, but much had to be mellowed down. All the ‘most important’ ministries were therefore safe with the same individuals as in the previous government. Not any of these persons coming back to the government, in virtually the same positions, had reason to express any need to change and make any course correction. Though, some changes in portfolios may have ‘sounded’ well. A few new faces would have augured well. But here, we have the same people in the same key positions, stating not much new yet. Given the constraints of a coalition government, with partners having demands on portfolios, understandably, there was less legroom to play around. Now, post the budget announcement, with the two principal partners, namely in Bihar and Andhra, having been given their demands, would the PM have more space for a rejig on his mind, in not too far off horizon? Has he been buying time, given the fact he has allies this time around?

One issue is the people, the other is policy. Should there be any policy changes? How dire is the need for change in priority etc; can this wait? Any long-term denial of this specific mandate for course correction, how fatal can this be for the ruling dispensation? That it is also a mandate for an historic third term is equally true! But it is not decisive, not without its pre-conditions or riders is also correct. And therein lies the question? People and personalities do matter just as much as policies. When the same person says a different thing, marking a new beginning, it requires continuing actions and accomplishments to get acceptance. When a new person announces new initiatives, they are more readily accepted! To bring a quicker show of change in track, we might need both new policies being put in place by new people.

What won the BJP its 240 seats? It is a vote for development!

What won the BJP and what made it lose? If we look at the results again, it is perhaps an over simplification but could the reduced mandate, one analyst believes, be for that part of the government that stands for development? That which was lost was that portion that did not subscribe to policies that were seen as divisionary, based upon caste or religion, or whatever; that while the nation must have been happy for the temple at Ayodhya, they were not subscribing to vote in the name of temple politics.

Others who pulled out could be those not going along with the government with what had been often referred to as ‘its laundry machine’, that overnight turns the corrupt into saints, which often has hurt the rank and file within its own party; those who have toiled through the years, as devoted and committed party members, suddenly finding themselves marginalised! A significant number of ‘new’ and overnight turned righteous got seats in preference over the old and committed. Therefore, it would be wiser to understand that breaking up of local governments has often proved detrimental to stability within the ruling party itself, not entirely welcome within its rank and file. The writing is on the wall - not every state is accepting turncoats, examples are tedious and written about quite exhaustively.

The resultant mandate is decidedly for development, infrastructure enhancement and creation of opportunities that provide more jobs. This has been amply demonstrated by the government - in the last ten years, we have witnessed unprecedented growth in airline and airports, rail and road network, digital infrastructure that has brought about a new ease in banking and finance. One cannot say much for jobs, but in the key cities, much has improved. The spending power is considerably increased, going by growth in consumer reports. Witness the new challenges emerging from the growth of tier 2 and 3 and now even tier 4 cities.

The government is seen as an enhancer, an enabler where the private sector reaches the high levels of achievement - therefore, creating a steady and stable and sustained policy framework is the first step. Where profit making is considered an essential tonic for national growth. Where show cause notices are issued transparently and the affected entities not considered guilty until proved so, especially of suspected economic offences. Private industry must feel confident of stability in policy and treatment under all conditions. The onus must fall equally on industry bodies when they turn a blind eye to cases of obvious manipulation among their peers.

For the overall narrative, imperative that we start a conversation:

An awakened and over-zealous opposition showed a new energy, sometimes over the top, with government responding - let us say, though, to be true, there was a conversation, for a change. There was some debate, after all. Not all was issue based, but it was a start! Conversations and dialogue are the first step to consensus building. A majority could always be defiant but in a democratic set up that majority can also lose its majority. Was that one cardinal lesson from the 2024 outcome? Accept it, or lump it, can never solve our problems. The onus falls equally on both sides. Protests against the government, especially within the four walls of Parliament, must carry dignity. ‘Language’ needs to improve on both sides. If such a change was anticipated and desired, the opening session of the new parliament brought only a limited sense of relief, that vision of that change required in our national discourse.

On the road ahead, some pointers to expect:

‘Over exposure’ marks the onset of fatigue. Too much has its limits. We need to tone this down. On any chess board, there is a King, but he cannot straddle across all the squares; there are others, even the regular and unheralded ‘pawn’ can deliver a ‘fall’ or two. Let them all share the lime light, let them all make their calls. When watching any IPL matches, one often gets to view some standard and delightfully successful product advertising, aired every ten minutes, in one commercial or the other. A common response is to switch off, with a ‘not again’ attitude. To some extent, this change has happened already within the Congress with the elevation of Kharge as president! He has taken the spotlight, too much too often, off Rahul Gandhi, to the advantage of both, and the party.

Reliance on the bureaucracy, as an alternative to their political masters, how much has this resulted in ushering in a new order? The overall understanding is that we have met with differing results in different areas. It has been successful, but only in parts. A single vision appears to have set across the ministries, with much of the decision-making left to the PMO. It has eliminated the wanton disregard seen in earlier years, when everybody was doing his own bidding. Not so any more. But we need to find a delicate balance, its not one way, or the other, but somewhere in between, a calibrated new structure. Let each minister and his ministry become responsible, and be hauled up, if and when required.

Emphasize upon the delivered good, increase its focus: Much has happened in the last decade, there is no getting away from this fact. That needs to be upped. Development has no limits and we have a long catch-up game to play. In so many fields that this exercise is daunting. We have begun in real earnest, but it is still early days yet. There has been stability, and good governance on economic fronts. Most of all, globally, India and Modi have been recognized for their being important and stable partners in search of global solutions. The success of G20, though it got sidelined by the sudden war in Gaza, will remain a pointer towards this success. Serious global concerns have often borne a ‘Made in India’ stamp. Witness again the prominence that India and PM Modi got at the G7 summit!

Globally, we need to be vigil and strong, united and together: This one has zero tolerance towards defaulters. None should weaken the nation. In the global churn, when big power rivalry is entangled with economic concerns, mutual dependency and so much hostility inter-twined with need for cooperation, India is caught at a cross roads seldom witnessed before. It calls for a strong government, a strong and united people. How can this be set best?

Budget 2024-25 is a Good Start: It was a responsible budget, giving full importance to fiscal prudence. It further gives priority to jobs, employment, growth. There is always a need for reading in between the lines, in any budget, this too is no different. But as details trickle down, there is maturity, continuity and renewed confidence in the growth of the economy. We will do well to remember that not everything needs to be spelt out in the budget, much happens outside it. It is only an annual statement of where the government hopes to get revenue, and to spend it where? But it does not mean there are no other alternatives during the rest of the year. The coming months will spell out new directions.

Expectations are at an all time high. From everything, from everybody. So, when the Sensex goes touching the highs of 80,000, there is less satisfaction; there is further expectation of more, when will it touch one lakh? What is driving the Sensex? Nobody can say for sure, but it must be the investor confidence. This is confidence in what? Nobody can be sure. It must be spending power of the Indian. What is helping grow the spending power of the Indian? Nobody knows for sure. At some point, just go with the flow.